Handicapping the Cliff Lee sweepstakes
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07/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What was it that Yogi Berra said, "It's like deja vu all over again"?
Why do I have the feeling that I have done this before? By this, I mean a piece in July on where or who is interested in grabbing Cliff Lee at the trade deadline. Oh, that's right, it's because I did exactly the same thing a year ago when Cleveland was offering the left-hander to anyone who would listen.
Yes, Lee has become the modern-day David Cone, a mercenary commodity acquired for the stretch run by teams harboring World Series aspirations. Cone did it a couple of times in his career, and now Lee, who was an integral part of the Philadelphia Phillies' second straight National League title a year ago, appears to be headed in that same direction.
Seattle entered the year as the American League West favorite after acquiring Lee from Philadelphia. With the perennial division powerhouse Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim expected to have a down year, Seattle was the obvious choice with Lee and the uber-talented Felix Hernandez combining for one of the best 1-2 combinations atop a rotation.
Of course, the season has not gone as planned, as the Mariners have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league and reside in last place in the West, 15 games back of division-leading Texas.
Outside of missing the first month of the season with an abdominal injury, Lee is hardly to blame, as he is 8-3 with an AL-low 2.34 ERA. Oh, by the way he has won his last four starts and five of his last six, going the distance in four of those outings. Not a bad showing for a guy who is going to be a free agent at the end of the year.
He is the best pitcher in baseball at the moment and people in Cleveland and Philadelphia may not want to hear this, but Seattle is going to get a ton more in return for him than, for one, they gave up, and, two, what the Phillies paid for him at last year's deadline.
How can that be possible for a player who is essentially a two-month rental?
Quite simply, it is the market. Some people have speculated that there could upwards of 11 or 12 teams involved in this when it is all said and done. Throw in both New York teams, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay and you have yourself a full-fledged bidding war for a top-of-the-line pitcher who is at the top of his game.
So let's take a look below at the teams who are expected to be in the running for the former A.L. Cy Young Award winner's services before the July 31 non- waiver trade deadline:
FAVORITES
MINNESOTA TWINS - Initially it was reported that Seattle had hoped to obtain a catching prospect as part of the ransom they would receive for Lee. Enter the Minnesota Twins, who at the moment are a half game back of the Detroit Tigers in the A.L. Central. They fill Seattle's need in backstop Wilson Ramos, and with somebody named Joe Mauer currently behind the plate, Ramos is absolutely expendable. In addition to Ramos, the Twins also are apparently willing to part with outfielder Aaron Hicks. If that is indeed true, this whole sweepstakes may be a moot point, because an offer like that in my opinion means game over.
NEW YORK METS - The New York Mets desperately need another starter to pair with Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey. Earlier in the year, they had hoped to get someone like a Kevin Millwood, or some other veteran innings-eater. But with Carlos Beltran nearing a return and the Mets just two games out of first place in the N.L. East, they are real players here. Catcher Josh Thole is a marginal prospect, but 22-year-old flame thrower Jenrry Meja is legit. A package centered around those two, plus an Angel Pagan or Jonathan Niese, should get it done.
TAMPA BAY RAYS - This is the one team that should scare the rest of the league if they can get Lee. The Rays have done their best to keep themselves under the radar here, but they are definitely involved, and some people think they may very well be the favorites to land him. Manager Joe Maddon and the rest of the organization have tired of B.J. Upton and could offer him along with Dioner Navarro. Upton could be as talented a player as there is in the league, but some think he just will never get it from a maturity standpoint. The blowup with Evan Longoria in the team dugout a couple weeks back seems to have been the final straw.
KICKING THE TIRES
NEW YORK YANKEES - I am not so sure how involved the Yankees will be in this whole process, but if the Rays are indeed involved, you can bet your bottom dollar that general manager Brian Cashman is looking into acquiring Lee. The Yankees have two of the top catching prospects in baseball at their disposal in Austin Romine and Jesus Montero, not to mention 24-year-old Francisco Cervelli, who is currently on their roster. Let's be honest, though, Lee is a luxury for the Yankees, unless they can unload Javier Vazquez, who is in the final year of his deal.
CINCINNATI REDS - I was skeptical of the Reds being the trendy pick at the beginning of the year because, well, they are the Reds. I was completely wrong, though, and an acquisition of Lee could very well tip the scale in their favor in the N.L. Central. If anything, it give them a sense of legitimacy. In addition to a catcher, Seattle also could use a first baseman, and Yonder Alonso certainly fits the bill. The Reds are going to shut down rookie Mike Leake at some point and they cannot count on much from Edinson Volquez, who is expected to return from Tommy John surgery, as well as a steroid suspension, after the All-Star break. It would be a bold move, but if the Reds want to reach the postseason it may be one they have to make.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - A month or so ago, I thought the Cardinals would be big players for Chicago lefty Mark Buehrle, who is a St. Louis native. But the White Sox have been on a tremendous roll of late and are just one game back of Detroit in the AL Central. So, he is out. The Cards need another starter. Brad Penny is coming back, but they probably need another one anyway, especially if there is an innings limit on Jaime Garcia. Not to mention that the Reds are interested, so common sense tells you that the Cards would have to be a player just to block him from going to a division rival.
LONGSHOTS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - The Phillies can certainly use Lee, but I don't see general manager Ruben Amaro going back there. He would have to surrender prized prospect Dominic Brown, a player he was unwilling to include this past winter in the Roy Halladay deal. The Phils will rue the day they dealt Lee should he come back to haunt them come playoff time.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS - There is probably not a better fit for Lee than in Los Angeles, but the Dodgers' financial situation is up in the air with regards to the messy divorce of owner Frank McCourt. I don't see them making a move like this.
TEXAS RANGERS - The Rangers are in first place. They have pitched better than anyone ever thought they could. Lately, though, it has been their incredible offense that has carried them. They were sniffing around at Roy Oswalt earlier, so logic tells you they have made a call concerning Lee. But, as bad of a financial situation the Dodgers are in, the Rangers are in worse shape with an unsettled ownership situation. The only way they can pull off a deal like this is if Seattle takes Rich Harden back. Doubtful, considering he is currently on the disabled list.
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The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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