Lincecum goes after third straight complete game against Astros
Baseball Betting Lines
07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum hopes for the same type of run support San Francisco provided Ryan Sadowski in the opener of this set when the Giants play the middle test of their three-game series with the Houston Astros at AT&T Park.
Although, considering the way Lincecum has been pitching of late, he may not need it.
The NL's reigning Cy Young Award winner, who was just named the NL's Pitcher of the Month for June, won for the fourth time in his last five starts and for the eighth time in his last nine decisions on Monday in St. Louis, as he tossed a two-hit shutout to improve to 8-2, while lowering his earned run average to 2.37. He also struck out eight and has fanned at least that many in his last four starts, while leading the league in that category with 132.
"It was one of his best games. His fastball was moving, he had command of all his pitches. He was just locked in out there," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said of his ace.
It was his second consecutive complete game and his third in four starts, two of which have been shutouts.
"He wants to be the guy to complete a game," Bochy added. "That's the mentality you want your starters to have."
Lincecum, who has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight outings, is 1-0 in four starts against the Astros with a 2.13 ERA.
San Francisco's offense exploded early on Friday, as it scored a season-high 13 runs over the first three innings in a 13-0 win.
Sadowski (2-0) followed up six shutout innings in his big league debut on Sunday with seven more scoreless innings and allowed just three hits and a walk while fanning four for San Francisco, which was coming off a 5-5 road trip.
Nate Schierholtz and Edgar Renteria each contributed three hits to the onslaught, Pablo Sandoval added two more, including a homer and three RBI, and Travis Ishikawa belted a three-run homer for the victors.
"We don't do that very often, but the offense was there," said Bochy. "(Sadowski) was good. He was outstanding. We had it all going tonight: offense, pitching. It was good to see the guys bounce back."
Houston starter Felipe Paulino (2-5) lasted just two innings, getting tattooed for nine runs -- eight earned -- on nine hits for the Astros, who lost the opener of this three-game set after taking three of four from San Diego.
"He just didn't have good location," Astros manager Cecil Cooper said of his starter. "[His] curveball wasn't as good as it was before. Probably got too many pitches in the zone. He didn't hit his spots very well and seemed like they knew what was coming the way they were swinging."
Houston will turn to veteran righty Russ Ortiz, who is 3-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Ortiz, who started his career with the Giants, did not get a decision on Sunday against Detroit, despite giving up just two runs and six hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 4-3 loss.
Ortiz has faced his former team seven times and is 0-3 in those outings with a 7.46 ERA.
Drafted by San Francisco in 1995, Ortiz went 67-44 from 1998 through 2002 with the Giants before leaving via trade in 2002. After stops in Arizona and Baltimore, Ortiz returned to San Francisco in 2007 and appeared in 12 games before undergoing an operation on his throwing elbow that cost him the 2008 season.
Houston and San Francisco are meeting for the first time since the Astros took seven of the eight meetings a year ago. Houston went 3-1 at AT&T Park in 2008.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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