PGA Championship Hole-By-Hole Preview
Golf Betting Lines
07/28/2010 - Haven, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - HOLE ONE - Par 4 - 408 yards: Bending from right to left, the opening hole on the Straits Course gives the player his first glimpse of mighty Lake Michigan, not to mention the myriad bunkers strewn across the course. Hitting to the right-center fairway, avoiding the dunes and bunkers, will leave the best angle of approach to a well-guarded green. The 31-yard-long putting surface is fairly benign, but missing right and long will leave a difficult up-and- down from a shaved chipping area. Oh, and by the way, the hole can be stretched to 491 yards.
HOLE TWO - Par 5 - 593 yards: The third longest hole on the course, the par-five second is a robust 593-yard monster, nicknamed Cross Country. By now, the player has figured out that missing fairways on the Straits Course will prove to be hazardous to your score. With bunkers running up and down both sides of the landing area, you'll need to be spot on with your tee ball. This three-shot hole requires an adept layup, especially the closer you get to the hole, as the fairway narrows dramatically. Your third will be slightly uphill to a narrow green with deep bunkers below the hole to the left and a runoff swale to the right.
HOLE THREE - Par 3 - 181 yards: The first of four outstanding par threes that run alongside Lake Michigan, the third is all carry over sand and dunes to one of the longest and most undulating greens on the course. Miss left and you'll end up swimming with the fishes. When the wind is up and the pin is back-left, watch out.
HOLE FOUR - Par 4 - 493 yards: Rated as the hardest hole on the course, the fourth is a par four that can play as short as 348 yards and as long as 500. Hanging above the lake, you'll need to bust a drive down the right-center, avoiding the disaster that looms below. A long iron or fairway metal will be required to reach a slightly elevated green that stands perched above the water. Make par here and you're better than most.
HOLE FIVE - Par 5 - 598 yards: Aptly called the Snake, the fifth, which moves inland, wraps around water and dunes as it plays west towards Kohler, then north to Green Bay and west again. A big tee shot can set up a possible chance to get home in two, but very risky, as water fronts the putting surface. Laying up is no bargain either, as the landing area is quite narrow, with water left and dunes right. If successful, just a wedge will remain to the long and narrow green. Very tempting, but use your head.
HOLE SIX - Par 4 - 355 yards: One of only three par fours under 400 yards, the sixth is a dogleg right that requires pinpoint accuracy. Three-metal is a nice play off the tee, but be wary of the pot bunker on the left side of the fairway. Any shot missed to the right off the tee will result in a difficult lie in either sand or scrub and trust me, the scrub is horrible. Your second will be just a wedge to a very undulating and narrow green that runs left to right. Miss short and you'll end up in one of several deep pot bunkers.
HOLE SEVEN - Par 3 - 221 yards: Back along the shoreline of Lake Michigan, the seventh is a beautifully framed par three that reaches 221 yards. There's no crime in bailing out left, as playing from the beach is no picnic. A dozen or so bunkers protect the left side of the green, which is 42 paces in length. A back-right pin with the wind howling makes this one of the most feared holes on the course.
HOLE EIGHT - Par 4 - 507 yards: With the waves crashing along the shoreline, you'll have a hard time staying focused on the task at hand, carrying a couple of hundred yards of sand and waste area to reach the landing area on the 507-yard eighth. Several dozen bunkers dot the landscape on this par four, that has been lengthened some 45 yards, not to mention the severe drop-off towards the water on the right. Playing slightly downhill towards the green, a mid-iron should suffice, depending of course on the pin placement of this whopping 47-yard-long putting surface. The tiered green runs from front to back and may be difficult to hold when the pin is back.
HOLE NINE - Par 4 - 449 yards: The closing hole on the front nine heads back towards the clubhouse and requires a tee ball struck towards the left side of the fairway, as it will kick towards the right. Too far down the right might leave a blocked second shot due to a tall tree at the 100- yard mark. Just a short iron should remain for your downhill approach to another well-guarded green. Sand dunes and bunkers on the left, and Seven Mile Creek on the right, make for an intimidating target.
HOLE TEN - Par 4 - 361 yards: Playing uphill from tee to green, an aggressive play with driver should be the club of choice on the short, par-four 10th. A deep fairway bunker looms larger than life in the center of the landing area, but with driver in hand, you should be able to clear disaster. The club to the green is quite severe and might require a little extra zest to reach the plateau. Only 28 paces in length, the putting surface is quite slick from back to front and any shot short of the green will run back down the fairway.
HOLE ELEVEN - Par 5 - 618 yards: From short to long, the 11th is the Grande Dame at the Straits and garners the name "Sand Box." Try adding up the bunkers up and around this par five and you'll lose count. The drop-off to the right can spell doom, so play down the left side and make this a true three-shot hole. Although it narrows towards the green, a layup down the right will leave around 100 yards in. Slightly uphill to an elevated putting surface, you'll need to be quite accurate, as the green is just 23 paces and surrounded by a shaved swale. As if the length of the hole wasn't hard enough.
HOLE TWELVE - Par 3 - 143 yards: Back along the water, the par-three 12th is the shortest and probably the most difficult to attack, despite the length of the green. Just 143 yards, the greenskeeper can make mice out of men on this gem. With the multi-tiered putting surface perched above the water, the man in charge can be really cruel with a back-right pin, where there's just a few yards of space. A drop-off of 40 feet to Lake Michigan will snare plenty of balls that are just off line, so play to the fat of the green and trust your putter.
HOLE THIRTEEN - Par 4 - 404 yards: One of the few modest holes on the course, the 13th is just 404 yards and bends to the right towards the green. Plenty of fairway and rough to the left, so if you must bail out that's the play, as another severe drop to the right will end up in the sandy dunes or worse, "The Lake." A short iron should be the club of choice to the downhill green that sits incredibly close to the water. The narrow putting surface features several humps and bumps as it cants to the right. At second glance, not that easy, is it?
HOLE FOURTEEN - Par 4 - 373 yards: The sharp, dogleg-left 14th requires brain not brawn in an attempt to conquer. Fairway metal or long iron off the tee should set up a very short iron approach to the slightly elevated green. Miss left off the tee and you'll have a sandy, blind approach, while a right mistake can leave an awkward lie off the dunes. The putting surface is long and undulating as it slopes from back to front. This hole can be had, but you need to be precise.
HOLE FIFTEEN - Par 4 - 518 yards: The 15th starts a final stretch to the clubhouse of spectacular proportions. Maxing out at 518 yards, this par four -- yes, par four -- is very awkward to the eye, as you must adjust your line of sight to the fairway towards the left. Even with a mammoth blast, you'll need a fairway metal or more to reach the green. Sand surrounds most of the S-shaped landing area, so pick your line and go with...you know. There's nothing to be ashamed of making a bogey, at least that's what I keep telling myself. When Vijay Singh captured the 2004 PGA Championship, he made two pars and two bogeys, as the hole proved to be the most difficult for the week, averaging 4.35 shots.
HOLE SIXTEEN - Par 5 - 569 yards: The final par five with a real chance to yield a birdie, the 16th is a reachable 569-yarder that finishes overlooking Lake Michigan. An ample fairway for mere mortals, the landing area tightens for the big hitters in their attempt to get home in two. With sand dunes and the dropoff towards the water lurking left, you would be wise to hit the fairway. Your second shot plays slightly uphill to the green or if you're laying up, a tight finger of a fairway. The putting surface is long and elevated, making your approach difficult to get close.
HOLE SEVENTEEN - Par 3 - 223 yards: Difficult, demanding, intimidating and downright beautiful, that's what's in store as you stand on the tee of the 17th. The longest and most difficult of the par threes, this sensational one-shotter requires cojones! Hugging the Lake Michigan coastline, you'll need to bust anywhere from a long iron to a driver depending upon the conditions. The 30-40 foot dropoff is enough to shake any player's confidence. The putting surface is large enough where you can bail to the right, but a back-left pin can be daunting. How tough is the 17th? During the 2004 PGA Championship, the hole played to a scoring average of 3.1438 with just 20 birdies in four rounds. Although he tied for 68th, Robert Gamez aced the hole they call "Pinched Nerve" in round two with a five-iron.
HOLE EIGHTEEN - Par 4 - 500 yards: What's in a name? How about the closing hole on the Straits Course being called "Dyeabolical." At 500 yards from the back tee, your only hope is for the wind to be at your back. Another big drive is needed just to reach the fairway to have any shot at getting home in regulation. Sandy brush and dunes are in full view down the left side, so play out toward the right, elevated fairway. If you fail to accomplish this task, you have an option of playing left to a new landing area or right to an adjacent fairway (I went left). A long iron or fairway metal will remain to a humongous green that sits down in a bowl fronting the clubhouse. With a forced carry over sand, scrub and Seven Mile Creek, you might want to take an extra stick to better your chances. Both DiMarco and Leonard had chances to win in 2004 on the final hole, but both missed putts, while Singh parred the last in regulation and in the playoff for the title.
FINAL WORD: I look back at my experience at Whistling Straits and get goose bumps. Playing two of the best courses in the country, on Lake Michigan with spectacular views, being treated like a movie star and walking where some of the greats of the game have crossed, is a once-in-a-lifetime encounter.
First of all, we have to start with The American Club, a three-story, three wing resort with guest rooms and suites totaling 237 and more than 21,000 square feet of conference space. The brilliant red brick throughout the buildings and the slate roofs give this Tudor-style structure its wonderful character. The dining is first-cabin, including the Immigrant Restaurant, a AAA Four Diamond Award establishment for 17 straight years.
But the real jewels of Kohler are the two phenomenal courses at Whistling Straits. Some have called the Straits Course as "Ireland on steroids." I have yet to travel to The Emerald Isle, but if it's anything like the Straits and Irish courses, than I'm in for a real treat.
Most people talk about the final holes at a course being some of the best on the layout, but with the Straits, the entire venue is as good as it gets. The walking-only course on the shore of Lake Michigan is, in a word, a masterpiece.
Framed by massive sand dunes and bluffs, the Straits Course offers views of the lake on all 18 holes, with eight holes snug up against the great body of water. The greens are massive at 7,500 square feet and with more than 500 bunkers and even more sand dunes, you're in for the ride of your life.
Caddies are required on the Straits and with the course stretching to almost 7,700 yards, you'll walk approximately 5 miles. Now don't get discouraged, there are five sets of tees starting at 5,400 yards, so choose the correct color and you'll have the time of your life.
The Irish Course is a wonderful complement to the Straits. Not as long as its partner, the Irish also boasts five sets of tees, ranging from 5,100 to 7,200 yards and yes, plenty of sand. Almost 2,000 trees were planted on the course, and although Lake Michigan is in view on five holes, it never comes into play. The Irish does feature plenty of water hazards, in fact, four streams snake through the course, not to mention a 10 1/2 acre lake on 16 and 17.
"The challenge for me was to create a second 18-hole course at Whistling Straits that would be comparable to the first course, not just a complement but of equal stature," said Dye.
Walking is preferred on the Irish, however carts are available for those who like cart-path only. Golf is a traditional game, so trust me when I tell you, take a caddie on both courses, you'll be glad you did. The greens are not as large as the Straits at 7,000 square feet, however the 13th hole boasts a whopping 14,500 square foot putting surface.
The caddie program at Whistling Straits is something special. Each incredibly knowledgeable about the courses, yardage, greens and after a couple of holes, your game. What I really enjoyed was the fact that our caddie was right on with the reading of the greens, the history of the courses and his genuine honesty and kindness. Just ask for Brian Everatz the next time you venture to Kohler, trust me, he'll only add to the experience.
Most clubhouses nowadays are these massive 21st-century structures that look out of place, but not at Whistling Straits. Modestly designed, the clubhouse fits the landscape to a "T". A farmhouse if you will, stationed above the 9th and 18th holes of the Straits Course, with remarkable views of Lake Michigan.
The two-story structure features a full-stocked pro shop for both men and women, a dining facility with sumptuous fare (the Kobe Sliders are amazing), a second floor bar and lounge and a complete locker room. Let's not forget the five fireplaces strewn about and the rich dark, inviting colors that give the clubhouse its wonderful charm.
Although not as expensive as Pebble Beach, Whistling Straits is a pricey ticket. At $330 for greens fees, another $60 for the caddie, not to mention tip and a few sundries in the pro shop, you're looking at $500 for a round of golf. So what? It's worth every penny and then some.
Bring your friends, bring the wives, heck, go by yourself, you'll be glad you did. This one is a must destination for all parties concerned.
I will always remember walking 36 holes with my buddy Dave one glorious, August day at Whistling Straits. One of my finest days on a golf course, ever!
Aces, pars or bogeys, send your thoughts to psokol@sportsnetwork.com.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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